Archived entries for employment

Hungarian Rhapsody: How to boost potential growth?

If there’s something that never works in Hungary, then it’s the economy. Unfortunately, this is not only a bad joke, but the reality.

Hungary’s economy was severely damaged by the financial crisis – public debt has soared to almost 80 % of the GDP, national currency (forint) lost more than 25 % versus the euro when the crisis peaked, unemployment rate reached its historical maximum at 10,3 % at the end of 2009 and may even increase in 2010. What structural weaknesses have led to the current situation? Well, inefficient allocation of resources, distortionary taxation system, low employment and high social expenditures are some of them.

This is the bitter truth and the boring numbers, but since every failure holds the possibility of success, let’s be optimistic and forward-thinking. I was thinking of some suggestions that , in my view, may shake up the Hungarian economy and boost the potential growth. Just to make it clear, my goal is not to give a detailed picture of the Hungarian economy, nor to find solutions to every economic challenge, however Hungary’s problems are not unique and may serve as a good lesson for others.

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Does our society need growth?

One can answer this question looking at both sides of the income equals outcome equation.

I will try to treat the income side. Therefore, I´ll specify the question a little: do we need steady growth to guarantee a certain minimum life standard for all human beings?
The other rather philosophical question would be whether we need technological growth, resulting in more work efficiency, more comfort and also longer estimated life times.
Keynes wrote in his standard work that he expected us to nowadays live in a perfect world without any unemployment – he underestimated the rising human pursuit of comfort and luxury: despite the exponential growth of work efficiency, increasing human desires have resulted in not only constant but even rising unemployment rates.

To facilitate the question, I will divide up our society into two parts: the employees and the capitalists. All assumptions are based on a solow model with integrated work efficiency affecting technological progress.
Additionally, I will assume that our international economy is more or less pretty close to the stationary point: the accumulation of capital has pretty far reached its maximum.
As I want to answer the question whether growth is required and possible when the global economy is saturated, I will assume the following scenario:

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