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Archived entries for uncertainty

März 29, 2010
In Acceleration, Decision Making, Growth, Topic
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Sustainability sucks!?!

Sustainability sucks? At least that´s the impression we get when thinking about the social, economic and ecologic problems we are facing and the things people do or don´t do to change the way the world moves.

Even single persons struggle with integrating sustainability into their daily life. Public transport to get to the office? Recycling? Car-Sharing?
When it is not even possible for private persons to make the step towards sustainable behaviour, how should this work out for a global company? Even more: Do we then have the right to demand this kind of attitude?

When looking at corporate homepages, the first thing that comes into view most of the times is a big and shiny button screaming “Corporate Social Responsibility”. The flash video next door talks about sustainability. In my opinion, these two terms seem to have evolved to the new and hip gadget in the world of corporate communication. The true motive rarely is an altruistic one, but the fear that some day society will deprive the company from taking action and drift over to competitors.

Februar 1, 2010
In Around the World
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Global Crisis, Local Effects: How does the financial crisis affect Argentina and other developing countries?

We are all aware of the fact that the current crisis (probably the worst since the Great Depression) started in the US financial market which is the center of a network of interconnected financial systems.

As a consequence, the crisis spread rapidly and became global in nature. Nevertheless, the impacts and effects of the crisis vary from country to country because they have different institutions, economic structures, idiosyncrasies and histories which condition the macroeconomic outcomes. Today, I will discuss a little bit how the crisis affects developing countries in general and Argentina in particular.

To begin with, there is a fundamental difference in the way financial crises arise in developed and developing countries. In developed countries, they follow a classical Minskyan boom-and-bust cycle governed by endogenous recurring elements which are the agents’ risk perceptions and expectations (this model successfully explains how the current crisis was originated in the US). On the other hand, in developing countries, there is an important differentiating aspect which is that the booming cycle is not triggered by internal financial innovations. Instead, it is driven by macroeconomic policies that promote speculation and arbitrage between domestic and foreign assets. A typical example of these policies is the predetermination of exchange rates which triggered the Argentinean financial crisis in 2001. Nevertheless, we have already stated that the current crisis was originated in the US. As a consequence, this point is not strictly relevant for the current analysis but should definitively be taken into account when adopting measures towards global sustainability.